By 2000, just five or six ERP (enterprise resource planning) vendors will account for about 85% of shipped manufacturing solutions worldwide, says Gartner Group Asia-Pacific research centre vice-president Bob Hayward.
Speaking at Sapphire 97 in Brisbane last week, he said that in the last five years a small number of vendors had pulled ahead of the pack.
They are gaining an increasing amount of market share among large Fortune 2000-type organisations.
“Today, in 1997, six vendors control about 55% of the market share of shipped ERP manufacturing solutions worldwide.”
By about 2000, the six vendors (possibly dropping to five) will account for as much as 85% of this software worldwide.
Below the top tier of vendors there is a second tier concentrating on the companies below the Fortune 2000 which might not be as ready for as rich or as functional a solution, or that are looking for a niche solution.
“And below that we have a large number of wannabes. There are dozens of companies that are already beginning to struggle to keep up with the level of research and development investment that companies like SAP can throw at technical problems.”
By 2000, he says SAP and Oracle will “certainly” be in the top five, he is “pretty sure” PeopleSoft will be there and “maybe” JDE and Baan.
“Anybody else? — toss a coin.”
He says there is intense pressure on vendors to continue an inexorable growth cycle in a climate of increasing saturation.
“There are only 2000 organisations in the Fortune 2000. If you’ve sold to most of them, then where do you go from there and can you expect the same type of revenue, the same kind of leverage, can you get away with charging the same kind of costs if you move into a different market? The answer is mostly ‘no’. You have to completely change and adapt your selling cycle, your selling model.”