A report by analyst firm IDC, released in February, predicts the number of metro ethernet subscribers in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) will increase from 280,000 to 9.2 million by 2006, representing an increase in revenue from those customers from $US395 million to $US19.4 billion.
According to IDC analyst Renee Gamble, residential metro ethernet service subscribers will comprise up to 80% of all subscribers, but the residential market will yield just 5% to 7% of revenue for providers, with premium services for business meaning that sector will provide the lion's share.
In the US in July -- nine months before Yipes went into Chapter 11 -- IDC predicted US metro ethernet revenues would increase at 36.7% a year until 2006, when the market would be worth $US740 million, up from $US155 million in 2001.
IDC analyst Courtney Moore said at the time that metro ethernet "can cost two to four times less for a customer to use 100Mbit/s or 1Gbit/s in a MAN than to use a comparable amount of bandwidth over private lines. Moreover, ethernet is well understood as it is used in most US LANs and generally doesn't require customers to purchase special equipment."
At a gigabit ethernet conference in California last month, Jeff Caruso, a reporter with Network World (published by Computerworld NZ owner IDG Communications), noted "… analysts were sceptical about ethernet's chances in MANs and WANs. Even though the development work behind 10 gigabit ethernet has pushed that technology to take a definite carrier bent, early products are still extremely expensive and there isn't the demand for 10 Gigabit ethernet among service providers that was hoped [for]."