ICT analyst firm IDC is forecasting Apple to win 7.6% of the New Zealand market for converged devices, or smartphones, over the next five years.
The figures come from a draft report, the first IDC has done in a new series tracking mobile phone sales in New Zealand.
"We are still working on finding some more contacts to speak to in order to bring confidence levels up to the usual standard," says Mark Novosel, IDC's Australia-based telecommunications analyst in an email.
"There are, however, more variables in the New Zealand market currently than in Australia, including Telecom's 3G migration plans, depending on how soon they push 3G migration and how Vodafone responds it could significantly impact on the market dynamics," he says.
"In Australia there is more competition, four distinct network operators and other MVNO's, this means tighter competition. In New Zealand's duopoly, there is less motivation for operators to offer outstanding deals and consumer value." IDC’s quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker shows that in the first quarter of 2008 2.02 million mobile devices were shipped to Australia, with 0.57 million of these being converged devices. IDC expects that by 2012 converged devices will account for almost 50% of all mobile devices shipped there. Novosel says in a press release Apple's inclusion of GPS will be well received in Australia. "Being a HSDPA device with GPS, coupled with Apple's renowned design, the iPhone 3G will see strong initial demand and by the end of 2012 IDC expects Apple to have shipped in excess of 1.31 million iPhones to Australia. "It wouldn't be unusual to experience stock shortages in the initial months after launch and given that the HTC Diamond and Blackberry Bold should be launching shortly after, frustrated consumers may quickly opt for other comparable devices." adds Novosel. The iPhone 3G is forecast to take 7.38% of the converged device market by the end of 2012, in Australia.