New Zealand’s IP traffic is expected to double in the next five years to 318 petabytes of data by 2017, according to the latest forecast from Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI).
Global IP traffic will increase three-fold in the same period, to 121 exabytes of data. An exabyte is 1000 petabytes, and a petabyte is 1000 terabytes. The VNI is a rolling five-year forecast produced by Cisco that predicts the size and nature of internet traffic around the world.
Cisco vice president for global technology policy Robert Pepper says the four catalysts driving the increase in traffic globally are more internet users, more devices, faster broadband speeds and more rich media content. By 2017, Cisco predicts around 28 percent of the world’s population will have access to the internet, while in New Zealand 92 percent of the population will be connected online.
The biggest driver for internet data locally will be devices. Cisco predicts that by 2017 there will be 24 million devices/connections in New Zealand and that equates to around five devices/connections for every person in New Zealand. Helping to drive the growth in data is the rapid adoption of tablet devices, which Pepper points out only became a recognised category when the iPad was released in 2010.
Meanwhile, Cisco predicts average broadband speeds to grow 8.3-fold to 70Mbps in 2017 and the average mobile connection speed to grow four-fold to 6,068 Kbps by 2017. In addition, in five years time 60 percent of internet traffic in New Zealand will traverse wi-fi, with average wi-fi speeds from mobile devices growing 4.2-fold to 30Mbps in 2017, Cisco predicts.
By 2017 the ‘internet of things’ will have become more prevalent, with machine-to-machine connections growing three-fold in the next five years. Globally, by 2017 it’s predicted that 8 billion fixed and mobile devices will be IPv6-capable. In New Zealand there will be 15 million IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices, up from three million in 2012, according to the VNI.